Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the source of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
